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Prediction for CME (2022-09-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-09T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21591/-1
CME Note: A faint CME in SOHO white light and running difference imagery which is seen as even fainter in STEREO A imagery with no true leading edge to analyze. It is directed mostly to the north in SOHO imagery and to the north and east in STEREO A. While the coronagraph imagery seems to suggest that the CME source is located on the Earth-facing disk, a preliminary triangulation using SWPC_Cat results in a broad area on the Earth-facing disk where no source seems to actually erupt. The analysis is therefore pretty speculative. The CME overlaps a few other faint CMEs which increases the difficulty of the analysis. The interplanetary shock is characterized by a jump in solar wind speed, density, temperature and B_total. There is another subsequent increase at 2022-09-14T08:44Z, leading to an increase in B_total above 10 nT. Some magnetic field rotation is present.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-09-14T06:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-11T22:51Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 0.0%
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

Input:
Initial shock speed: 264 km/s 
Source location: E12N43  
Solar wind speed: 430 km/s
Duration time: 0.5 hr (default)

Output
The shock will not reach our Earth!

Lead Time: 44.70 hour(s)
Difference: 55.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-09-12T09:41Z

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